NCAA Division I
Selection Recap
What we projected vs what happened
17 of 18 called
We had Wake Forest in; the committee left them out. We had Massachusetts out; it got in.
Right and wrong
North Carolina was our first team out if Old Dominion won the Big East — instead the committee gave the Tar Heels the 8 seed. Penn State, our first team below the cut line, and Wake Forest, who we had in, both missed the tournament. Massachusetts, below our cut line, got in. We'll own the misses.
We had them out — they got in
- MassachusettsSelected
We had them in — they missed
- Wake ForestLeft out
We called it (17)
- Northwestern1 seed
- Maryland2 seed
- Harvard3 seed
- UConn4 seed
- Princeton5 seed
- Yale6 seed
- Iowa7 seed
- Duke
- Syracuse
- North Carolina8 seed
- Lafayette
- Old Dominion
- Miami (OH)
- Fairfield
- Saint Joseph's
- Vermont
- Wagner
Bubble Watch returns next season. Follow the tournament on the live bracket.
The archived projection
Our final projected field and cut line, kept as published before the selection show.
- NorthwesternRPI 1AQ
- MarylandRPI 2At-large
- HarvardRPI 3At-large
- UConnRPI 4At-large
- PrincetonRPI 5At-large
- YaleRPI 6AQ
- IowaRPI 7At-large
- DukeRPI 8At-large
- SyracuseRPI 9AQ
- Wake ForestRPI 10At-large
- North CarolinaRPI 11At-large
- LafayetteRPI 13AQ
- Old DominionRPI 19AQ
- Miami (OH)RPI 20AQ
- FairfieldRPI 27AQ
- Saint Joseph'sRPI 28AQ
- VermontRPI 30AQ
- WagnerRPI 57AQ
Projected cut line · In above · Out below
- 12
- 14
- 15
How the 18 spots break down
The same projected field shown above, broken down by league: 10 automatic bids and 8 at-large places.
| Conference | Automatic bid | Also likely at-large | Total bids |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACC | SyracuseRPI 9 confirmed |
| 4 |
| America East | VermontRPI 30 confirmedBid stealer Vermont (RPI 30) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. | — | 1 |
| Atlantic 10 | Saint Joseph'sRPI 28 confirmedBid stealer Saint Joseph's (RPI 28) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. | — | 1 |
| Big East | Old DominionRPI 19 confirmedBid stealer Old Dominion (RPI 19) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. |
| 2 |
| Big Ten | NorthwesternRPI 1 confirmed | 3 | |
| CAA | FairfieldRPI 27 confirmedBid stealer Fairfield (RPI 27) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. | — | 1 |
| Ivy League | YaleRPI 6 confirmed | 3 | |
| MAC | Miami (OH)RPI 20 confirmedBid stealer Miami (OH) (RPI 20) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. | — | 1 |
| NEC | WagnerRPI 57 confirmedBid stealer Wagner (RPI 57) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. | — | 1 |
| Patriot League | LafayetteRPI 13 confirmedBid stealer Lafayette (RPI 13) would take a bid no at-large team could have earned. | — | 1 |
| Total | 10 automatic | + 8 at-large | = 18 |
MPSF has no automatic bid, so it isn't listed; its teams can only get in at-large.
RPI is the NCAA's own rating. The committee also weighs head-to-head results, results against ranked teams and late-season form — which is exactly where projections like ours can miss.